President Donald Trump wants the world to buy more U.S. oil, but he might regret the offer if it raises gasoline prices.
Trump in his speech Wednesday night specifically called on countries dealing with fuel supply shocks brought by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran to purchase more from America: "Buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty."
But while the United States does have a lot of oil, it does not have enough to make up for the supply bottled up behind the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli attacks.
U.S. crude prices jumped more than $11 on Thursday to land at $111.54 a barrel, their biggest gain in years. Global crude oil benchmark Brent closed above $108. The American Automobile Association said the average U.S. gasoline price rose 2 cents to $4.08 per gallon.
In Asia, countries like Thailand have begun fuel rationing and curbing gasoline demand with measures like school closures and four-day work weeks. Several Asian airlines have announced they will reduce flights, and Australia has reported fuel shortages at service stations. In Europe, airlines are warning of cuts if the crisis drags on. And in the United States, United Airlines plans to cut about 5 percent of its capacity to deal with rising fuel prices.
"If we supply certain amounts to the rest of the world, you will see an outcry," said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for U.S.-based fuel retailer Gulf Oil. "If we're exporting gasoline during hurricane season and people are paying $5 a gallon, do you think they'll tolerate that? I don't think so."
The war in Iran and higher gasoline prices are already proving unpopular with voters as midterm elections come into view.
The GOP is already struggling to retain control with Trump's approval rating on the economy sitting at a career low 31 percent, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll Tuesday found two-thirds of Americans think the U.S. should work to end its involvement in the Iran war quickly, even if that means not achieving the goals set out by the Trump administration.
In his televised address to the nation Wednesday night, Trump told the countries with oil shortages they should find some "delayed courage" and reopen the strait themselves. Robert McNally, an energy and national security adviser during the George W. Bush administration and now the head of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, said that comment from Trump showed he was "implicitly recognizing" that his demand for the countries to buy U.S. oil won't fully fix the problem.
The White House noted that oil production has continued setting records since he took power in January 2025.
"Thanks to the President cutting unnecessary red tape and unleashing American energy, the Administration expects domestic production to continue to grow rapidly, while also tapping into newfound markets," said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers.
The world is already buying up American oil, said Andrew Lipow, head of oil market consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates. But for as much oil as the United States now has, there's not enough to fuel the world. The United States is the world's biggest producer, but it remains a net importer of crude oil by about 3 million barrels of oil a day.
"The world searches around for oil," Lipow said. "They go to the location that has it available. And that's actually what we're seeing in the oil market today."
If the price signals are right, U.S. shale drilling operations can scale up relatively quickly, said Bridget Payne, head of oil and gas forecasting for Oxford Economics. But that would still take three to six months to happen. In that time frame, the U.S. might be able to add about 1 million barrels of oil a day, she said.
"That comes nowhere near the [roughly 10 million bpd] of supply currently lost through the Strait of Hormuz," Payne said in an email. Beyond ships being unable to pass through the strait, widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East is likely to crimp supplies even once hostilities pause.
Still, U.S. production of oil and its exports of liquefied natural gas serve as a stabilizing force in a chaotic energy environment, according to the American Petroleum Institute, the industry's largest trade group.
"The U.S. remains the most reliable and secure supplier of energy — including LNG — strengthening energy security for allies and partners around the world," spokesperson Andrea Woods said in a statement.
There were times in the previous decade when America's shale oil producers might have rushed to ramp up production in a geopolitical crisis. Shale companies were valuing production over profits then. More volume brought extra revenue to the companies, and served to tamp down U.S. prices at the pump.
But more recently, oil companies, chastened by big losses in the late 2010s, have grown reluctant to quickly ramp up production, for fear the price would fall before the oil they pump gets to market.
"They'd only commit to a real ramp-up if the conflict clearly drags on," Payne said. "But that scenario probably means even greater Middle Eastern supply losses, widening the gap further."
There's also logistical and technical problems. The oil that comes from U.S. shale plays is, in industry parlance, light and sweet crude oil that's best suited for making gasoline, but not as good for diesel and jet fuel. And refineries on the Gulf Coast are built specifically to process the kind of heavier, sour crude.
Still, Trump was right Wednesday night when he said the United States doesn't actually get much oil from the Middle East. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Energy Department, the U.S. imports about 646,000 barrels per day from the Middle East — about one-tenth of all U.S. imports, and a small fraction compared to the more than 13 million barrels it produces daily.
Trump has often bragged that the United States has the largest petroleum reserves of any country. It actually ranks ninth in proved reserves, according to the 2024 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy.
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