One of Democrats’ best House pickup opportunities this fall could end up endangering their 2028 presidential odds.
Democrats are optimistic that they can finally win Nebraska’s purple 2nd District, especially after Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) opted not to seek reelection.
But the current Democratic frontrunner, state Sen. John Cavanaugh, would have to give up his state legislative seat if elected to Congress — and his replacement would be picked by the governor. That risks handing the GOP a filibuster-proof majority that could draw new congressional maps to make the seat safely Republican, or get rid of the state’s split electoral college setup that has yielded Democrats one electoral vote in recent presidential elections because their candidates carried the district.
It is the paradox of Nebraska’s 2nd District: A win this year could cost Democrats in 2028 at a much larger scale.
Cavanaugh, along with many Democrats, say they are confident the party can flip legislative seats this fall so that losing his seat would not change the balance of power, citing both the national political environment and anger at Republican legislators who have gone against the will of the state’s voters in recent statewide referendums. But others — including several of Cavanaugh’s Democratic primary opponents — argue the risk is too great.
“I’ve spent the last 20 years trying to build political power, and now we are creating this unforced error of allowing a state legislator who is needed desperately … at least to give us a fighting chance to stop them from doing bad things,” said Crystal Rhoades, clerk of the Douglas County district court and former county party chair who is one of Cavanaugh’s primary opponents.
Democrats are one seat short of the votes needed to block legislation in the state’s unicameral legislature. Last year, they were joined by a single Republican, state Sen. Merve Riepe, to block a near-total abortion ban as well as efforts to redistrict the state to make the 2nd District safely Republican. In 2024, Republicans similarly came up short on efforts to get rid of Nebraska’s split Electoral College vote system, which could swing the presidency in a close election.
Kamala Harris’ win in Nebraska’s 2nd District in 2024 meant that if she had won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania she would have won the presidency; but if Nebraska did not split its electoral votes, she and President Donald Trump would have been tied with 269 electoral votes under that scenario.
If Republicans pick up seats in the legislature and keep the governor’s mansion this November, they would have another shot at taking away Democrats’ opportunities in Nebraska ahead of the 2028 elections. It’s a scenario Democrats are eager to prevent.
“We’re targeting about five seats across rural Nebraska this time,” said Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party. “We’re prepared that we might lose [Cavanaugh’s] seat. So that means we have to pick up a few more this cycle.”
Democrats' path to breaking the filibuster-proof majority isn’t easy. Riepe is the only Republican up for reelection this cycle who represents a district Harris won in 2024. There are two Republican-held seats where Harris lost but independent U.S. Senate candidate Dan Osborn prevailed two years ago. Beyond that, Democrats will have to win in deeper red territory.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is investing in the state for the first time in several cycles.
Cavanaugh, in an interview, expressed optimism about the party’s chances, pointing to strong candidates across several districts.
“I have worked myself to try to bring resources to Nebraska to help us flip races in past elections, and I think when we do invest, we win. But the key is to have good quality candidates that match their district, and we have that,” Cavanaugh said.
He noted much of the talk about the risks of him giving up his seat was coming from his primary opponents, and argued voters are more focused on issues affecting their everyday lives.
“Voters are consistently concerned about holding Donald Trump accountable, about affordability, about the ACA tax credits and the cost of gas and groceries,” Cavanaugh said.
Seven sitting state senators have endorsed Cavanaugh, a sign they aren’t concerned that losing his seat would jeopardize the party’s legislative agenda. He has led in publicly released internal polls, and has also racked up endorsements from labor unions and the Congressional Progressive Caucus’s political action committee.
“The people who are affected by both the state and the national legislation are the ones who are supporting him, and the people who have served beside him know that he can do it,” said state Sen. George Dungan, who represents a purple district covering northeast Lincoln and is among Cavanaugh's endorsers.
But not everyone is convinced Democrats can pull off legislative flips this year. One Nebraska progressive who is not involved in the 2nd District race, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said it was “delusional” to expect the party to pick up enough seats to regain the 17-vote filibuster while giving up Cavanaugh's seat.
In Omaha, past Republican attempts to dismantle the district have led Democrats to rally around the concept of their “blue dot” within a red state.
“The level of passion and energy around the blue dot and the split on electoral vote and Nebraska-2’s role in that was huge. People would get blue dot manicures, and their dogs were wearing blue dot bandanas,” said Denise Powell, who is also running in the primary and previously ran a PAC supporting women candidates in Nebraska.
Both Powell and Rhoades have sought to highlight how Cavanaugh’s candidacy poses a risk to the blue dot, and their campaigns have signaled to outside groups that they would like to see advertising on the subject. Powell said she hopes Nebraska Democrats are able to flip several legislative seats this year. But she doesn’t want to count on it.
“We're a red state, and it is really hard, even with great candidates doing all the right things,” she said.
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