The Trump administration ending its war against Iran now would essentially cede control of the key energy choke point of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran, President Donald Trump's former secretary of Defense said Monday.
The assessment from former Gen. Jim Mattis comes as President Donald Trump declared a five-day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure after the U.S. and Israeli attack against Iran enters its fourth week. Iran's retaliation has forced the de facto closure of the narrow passage, where 20 percent of the world’s oil and seaborne gas supplies move from the Middle East to the wider market.
“Iran right now, if we declared victory, they would now say they own the strait,” Mattis said during the CERAweek by S&P Global conference. “You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through.”
“We’re in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen,” Mattis said. “I can’t identify a lot of options.”
A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to questions on Mattis’s remarks.
Oil prices retreated to $90 a barrel Monday after Trump declared a five-day pause on attacks against Iran to pursue negotiations. Prices have swung between nearly $120 and below $90 since the United States and Israel first struck Iran on February 28.
Despite the pause, it's unlikely that the United States or Iran will be able to find compromise for a solution, Mattis said. While U.S. missiles have laid waste to military targets in Iran, they haven't done anything to cement U.S. strategic interests in the war, he said.
"Neither side has the ability right now to move the other side off of where they're at," Mattis said. "Never in history has air power alone changed a regime."
Oil industry executives attending the conference have said they were hoping to hear from the administration about how long it would pursue the attacks against Iran. Some executives had privately begun to lean toward the U.S. establishing a permanent presence in the Strait of Hormuz to remove Iran’s ability to attack oil tankers in the Strait — only to be caught off guard by Trump’s saying he would start negotiating with the Iranian regime.
“Industry as of last week was thinking, let’s find a permanent solution,” said one oil industry executive granted anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to the media. “The solution being discussed was, is there a permanent presence we can build in the Strait Of Hormuz to take that big bargaining chip, to take away Iran’s presence there once and for all? To hear a ceasefire — that’s what it sounds like — it’s a pretty remarkable change of direction.”
The pause is not likely to lead to a lasting peace, Suzanne Maloney, director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institute think tank, said from the CERAWeek stage. Iran and the United States are too far apart in their objectives to guarantee an agreement, Maloney added.
Iran’s goals in negotiations “would include reparations," Maloney said. It would include end of U.S. military presence and support in the region. Those are probably untenable objectives from the point of view of Washington or from the point of view of their neighbors in the Persian Gulf, she said.
"I'm not optimistic about negotiations under the current circumstances," Maloney said.
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