As an experienced International Relations Analyst, I have been closely monitoring the shifting political landscape of the Middle East, and few developments are as striking as the recent emergence of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Crown Prince of Iran, as a focal point for opposition to the Islamic Republic. For decades, the son of the deposed Shah was a marginal figure in discussions about Iran's future, a relic of a bygone era kept alive by a nostalgic diaspora. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically.
Following the unprecedented uprising that began in late 2025—often dubbed the "Lion and Sun Revolution"—chants of "Javid Shah" (Long Live the King) have rung through the streets of Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz . This has prompted a critical question for analysts and policymakers alike: Why are Iranians, particularly a generation with no memory of his father's rule, increasingly willing to settle for Reza Pahlavi?
This article delves into the multifaceted reasons behind this phenomenon. We will explore the landscape of desperation inside Iran, examine case studies from the protests, analyze the theoretical implications of this shift, and assess the role of international organizations and strategies moving forward. The answer lies not in a widespread embrace of monarchism, but in a profound exhaustion with the Islamic Republic and the elimination of all other perceived avenues for change.
Understanding the Landscape: The Exhaustion of Options
To understand the appeal of Reza Pahlavi, one must first understand the depth of despair among the Iranian populace. The Islamic Republic has effectively closed all paths to reform from within. The Green Movement of 2009 was crushed. The hope for diplomatic detente represented by the 2015 Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) was ultimately sabotaged by the US withdrawal in 2018. Most devastatingly, the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement of 2022-2023, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, was met with a brutality that shocked the world but failed to topple the regime.
As Middle East expert Trita Parsi notes, the current sentiment is "a cry of desperation because nothing else has worked" . The protests that began in December 2025 over economic collapse quickly morphed into a demand for the end of the regime itself. When reform and revolution both failed to yield results, the opposition narrative began to shift.
In this vacuum, Reza Pahlavi offers a powerful, if paradoxical, asset: nostalgia. For a young population burdened by economic hardship, social repression, and international isolation, the Pahlavi era is often viewed through a romanticized lens of relative prosperity, security, and international relevance . They hear stories of a time before the 1979 revolution when Iran was a modernizing power. This isn't necessarily a demand for a return of the authoritarian structures of his father's reign, but rather a yearning for the national identity and functional governance that the current regime has failed to provide.
Case Studies: The Voice of the Streets
The shift from intellectual dissent to tangible political support was made evident in the protests of January and February 2026. The evidence on the ground presents a compelling, albeit contested, picture.
1. The January Uprising: Following a currency crash, protesters took to the streets. What began as economic grievances quickly turned explicitly political. According to reports from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, demonstrators were not just shouting general slogans. They were heard chanting, "Reza, Reza Pahlavi, this is the national slogan," and "This is the last battle, Pahlavi will return" . Crucially, this support was not limited to secular, urban youth. Observers noted participation from traditionally conservative groups, including segments of the bazaar merchants who form the economic backbone of the country, signaling a broad consensus against the regime’s economic incompetence .
2. The "Global Day of Action" and Munich Rally: On February 14, 2026, the diaspora demonstrated its organizational capacity. In Munich, a city hosting the Munich Security Conference, over 250,000 Iranians gathered—a number that swelled to over a million globally when including rallies in Toronto, Los Angeles, and London . This was the largest coordinated Iranian-diaspora mobilization in history.
However, this is where the narrative becomes complex and requires careful analysis. While the size of these rallies demonstrated significant organizational support for Pahlavi abroad, the situation inside Iran is far more nuanced. Reports from inside the country, such as those gathered by The New Arab, reveal a resistance to the idea of a foreign-based leader being imposed as the face of the movement. One Tehran resident, injured in the protests, expressed frustration: "We chanted 'Death to the dictator' and 'We don't want a king, we don't want a mullah.' Why don't we see those in the news?" .
This divergence presents the central paradox of the Pahlavi question. The protests themselves created a "Pahlavi Moment," but they did not necessarily create a "Pahlavi Movement." The Crown Prince became the most potent symbol of opposition, a figure around whom to rally precisely because he was the antithesis of the Islamic Republic. Chanting his name became the most "insulting thing they can chant at the regime," a form of protest that went beyond mere political preference to become a tool of maximum defiance .
Implications and Consequences: The Geopolitical Chessboard
The rise of Reza Pahlavi has profound implications for regional stability and international relations, transforming him from a symbolic figure into a potential geopolitical asset.
1. The Trump Factor: The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency has turbocharged the discussion around Pahlavi. The Trump administration has historically favored maximum pressure over diplomacy. Trump himself has stated that regime change in Iran "would be the best thing that could happen" and has sent a second aircraft carrier to the region, signaling a willingness to use force . For Pahlavi, this represents a window of opportunity. He has explicitly called on Trump to act, urging "surgical" strikes on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to facilitate the opposition's task .
2. The Risk of Externally Imposed Change: The greatest consequence of this alignment is the perception of Pahlavi as a foreign proxy. His highly publicized visits to Israel, and his support for Israeli actions against Iran, have deeply fractured the opposition and alienated many inside Iran who are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause . Furthermore, as Trita Parsi argues, Pahlavi's strategy appears to be aimed at winning Trump's support to be "installed from the top rather than him getting to power from the bottom" . If the regime falls due to foreign bombs rather than internal uprising, and Pahlavi returns on the back of American tanks, he risks inheriting the legitimacy deficit that plagued the current regime. He would be viewed not as a liberator, but as a conqueror's appointee.
3. Regime Response: Faced with this existential threat, the Islamic Republic is likely to double down on its repressive apparatus. Analysts suggest the regime may transition into a more overt military dictatorship under the direct control of the IRGC, potentially abolishing the role of Supreme Leader in favor of a council or a junta to ensure survival .
Theoretical Analysis: The "Anybody But the Mullahs" Syndrome
From a political science perspective, the willingness to "settle" for Reza Pahlavi can be understood through the lens of "negative coalition" theory. In revolutionary situations, coalitions often form not around a shared vision for the future, but around a shared enemy in the present. The unifying factor is not love for the Shah's son, but hatred for the Supreme Leader.
In this context, Pahlavi acts as a "vessel" for discontent. His value lies in what he is not: he is not a mullah, not tied to the current system of corruption, and not associated with the bloody crackdowns of the past four decades. His support for a separation of religion and state, a new constitution, and a democratic referendum provides a sufficiently vague yet appealing framework that allows various factions—from workers to secular nationalists—to project their hopes onto him .
However, this is a fragile foundation. The moment the common enemy is removed, the inherent contradictions within the coalition would surface. The central question—Republic or Constitutional Monarchy?—remained unanswered .
The Role of International Organizations
International bodies find themselves in a precarious position. The massive human rights violations during the crackdown, with estimates of over 7,000 protesters killed, have made normalization with the current regime increasingly untenable . The European Parliament's President has called to "double down on support for liberty," and Canada has stated it will not reopen its embassy unless there is regime change .
Yet, official recognition of Pahlavi is a red line. The Munich Security Conference's decision to disinvite Iranian officials and effectively host Pahlavi on the sidelines signals a significant shift in international sentiment, even if formal recognition lags behind . For the international community, Pahlavi's detailed "Iran Prosperity Project" (IPP)—a transition blueprint praised by Western analysts as "smarter than anything the U.S. government... produced before the 2003 invasion" of Iraq—offers a veneer of order and stability in what would otherwise be chaotic regime collapse . It provides a counterpart to coordinate with, moving beyond symbolic human rights declarations to operational planning.
Strategies for a Viable Transition
For the anti-regime movement to succeed without descending into civil war or foreign occupation, a coherent strategy is necessary.
Decoupling External Pressure from Internal Agency: The opposition must ensure that external pressure (sanctions, military threats) supports internal mobilization, not replaces it. As proposed by strategists, the goal should be to "make departure safer than loyalty" for regime insiders . This involves offering amnesty and protection to low-level functionaries and military conscripts who defect, thereby accelerating the regime's internal unraveling.
A Managed Transition Framework: Pahlavi's six-demand framework offers a starting point: degrading the IRGC's repressive capacity, dismantling the sanctions-evasion network ("ghost fleet"), ensuring free internet access, and preparing for a democratic transition . The emphasis on a national referendum for a new constitution is critical to establishing legitimacy, regardless of whether the eventual outcome is a republic or a constitutional monarchy.
Addressing the Legitimacy Deficit: Pahlavi must continue to distance himself from the authoritarian aspects of his father's reign and clearly articulate a vision where he is a "bridge to free elections, not the final destination" . He must also address concerns regarding his alignment with Israel, which remains a significant liability for many Iranians .
Conclusion and Summary
The increasing willingness of Iranians to settle for Reza Pahlavi is less an endorsement of monarchy and more a final verdict on the Islamic Republic. After 47 years, the regime has exhausted its ideological capital, destroyed its economy, and slaughtered its youth. In this landscape of desperation, Pahlavi has emerged as the default standard-bearer—not because he is the perfect candidate, but because he is the most effective vessel for anti-regime sentiment .
However, his moment is fraught with peril. The support he enjoys is wide but not necessarily deep, and it is fiercely contested by republican factions inside the country . His association with foreign powers, particularly the Trump administration and Israel, is a double-edged sword that could sever his domestic credibility. For the international community, the question is whether to bet on a managed transition led by a figure with name recognition and a plan, or to risk the chaos of an uncontrolled collapse.
Ultimately, the future of Iran will be decided by Iranians. But for now, in the chants from Tehran rooftops and the roar of a million voices in diaspora streets, it is clear that the Pahlavi name has become the most powerful symbol of the desire for a new dawn. Whether that dawn brings a king, a republic, or merely another long night remains the most critical question in the Middle East today.
